five in a row

OK OK so shoot me - it was NOT GIVE BACK SUNDAY - my bad

5 winning days in a row. shhhh don't tell anybody about the worlds most boring system. SERIOUSLY - I don't know how you guys do it with 2 or 3 picks - THAT is stress. I feel MUCH more comfortable in double digits. It all evens out with a slant to the plus side. 

Record
Day 72
Wagers 663
Units +62.92
ROI total 9.49%

NOTE - always RISK ONE (1) unit - straight bets - $1 to win $0.91

*******************************

Sunday total units +0.91 UP +10.02 in the last 5 days

You do realize that being up 60+ units after 663 wagers mostly chalks is an accomplishment. It's not the long run yet but . . .anything below 400 wagers is still pretty random. 

Monday Plays

NBA ML

Toronto -175 to win 0.57

NHL ML - nothing
NHL PL

Vancouver +1.5 -230 0.43
Washington +1.5 -220 0.45

Sweet 4 days !

OK - Great 4 days - it's GIVE BACK SUNDAY . . . . WHAT?

DAMN - I get this whole bragging thing wrong!
It's . . . . . . BOUNCE . . . FORWARD SUNDAY

Record
Day 71 
Wagers 654  Getting near the "LONG RUN" another 300 wagers.
Units +62.07
ROI total 9.49%

NOTE - always RISK ONE (1) unit - straight bets - $1 to win $0.91

WHY? I want to know how much I can lose. Winning at wagering is not about how much you win, it's about how much you DON'T lose

Books used for lines Bovada $1 min bet / BETUS $5 min bet

It's OK - nobody reads the above shit anyway

*******************************

Saturday total units +3.48 UP +9.29 in the last 4 days

Sunday Plays

NBA ML

Philly -350 to win 0.29 W
Phoenix +110 1.10 L
LAClippers -260 0.38 W
Denver -350 0.29 W

NHL ML

St.Louis -155 0.60 W
Anaheim -115 0.87 L
San Jose -125 0.80 W

NHL PL

St.Louis -1.5 +150 W
Anaheim -1.5 +225 L

Heading in the right direction

Record
Day 70
Wagers 643
Units +58.59
ROI  9.11%

NOTE - always RISK ONE (1) unit - straight bets - $1 to win $0.91

WHY? I want to know how much I can lose. Winning at wagering is not about how much you win, it's about how much you DON'T lose

Books used for lines Bovada $1 min bet / BETUS $5 min bet

*******************************

Friday total units +0.41
Saturday Plays

NBA ML

Miami -400 to win 0.25  W

NHL ML

Florida -200 0.50 L
Washington -170 0.59 L
Pittsburgh -170 0.59 W
Calgary -145 0.69 W
LAKings -125 0.80 W

NHL PL

Washington -1.5 +145 L
Pittsburgh -1.5 +150 L 
Calgary -1.5 +170 W
Boston -1.5 +145 W
LAKings -1.5 +200 W 

How are the lines working lately?  Here is if you picked EVERY favorite in the last 70? days 

Back in the saddle!

No bragging, no promises to "bounce back", no begging people to play the games with wild promises of riches. Just posting games and letting you make your own decisions.

Wait - am I bragging I'm not bragging? hmmmmm NOTE - to the Russians visiting the site (there are a few)- Americans are NOT mad at the civilizations.

Record Day 69 Wagers 639 total Units +58.18 ROI total 9.10%

NOTE - always RISK ONE (1) unit - straight bets - $1 to win $0.91

WHY? I want to know how much I can lose. Winning at wagering is not about how much you win, it's about how much you DON'T lose

Books used for lines Bovada $1 min bet / BETUS $5 min bet

*******************************

Thursday total units +2.62 (5.4 in the last 2 days ) NOT BRAGGING

Friday Plays

NBA ML

Minnesota +130 1.30

NHL ML

Chicago -140 to win 0.71

NHL PL

Chicago -1.5 +170 Vegas -1.5 -105 0.95

OK - a good night

Record

Day  68 
Wagers 634 
Units l +55.56
ROI total 8.75%

NOTE - always RISK ONE (1) unit - straight bets - $1 to win $0.91
Books used for lines Bovada $1 min bet / BETUS $5 min bet

*******************************

Wednesday total units +2.78

Thursdays Plays

NBA ML

Chicago -160 to win 0.62
Minnesota +120 1.20
Golden State -3.95 0.25

NHL ML - oddly nothing

NHL PL

Toronto -1.5 +155
Nashville -1.5 +165

Charts are looking much better after yesterday. Chart watching NFL PL LEAGUE wise continues to turn bullish for the -1.5s and the NHL ML went over the 14 day moving average

now if we can get MY system to stay above for more then one day that would be nigh - although I HAVE NO PLAYS!!

Almost pulling the plug - BUT . . . .

looking at the below graphs I'm PERSONALLY not betting REAL "units" until AND IF the 14 day moving average moves below the $$ line just tossing a few bucks in for shits and giggles  - Basically in the NHL I'm just keeping track of this experiment hoping things turn OR it is proven garbage.

Play at your own peril - I hate thinking people might be losing money because of an experiment that has turned dark

Record
Wagers here 371 total 630 total
Units here +21.91 total +52.78

NOTE - always RISK ONE (1) unit - straight bets - $1 to win $0.91

Books used for lines Bovada $1 min bet / BETUS $5 min bet

*******************************

Tuesday total units -1.48Tuesday

NBA - nothing until tomorrow?

NHL ML - FOR FUN ONLY

Colorado -290 to win 0.34
Montreal WHY WHY WHY -110 0.91

NHL PL - for fun only

Tampa Bay -1.5 +115
Montreal (see above ML) +1.5 -260 0.46

although if I was a chart guy in the stock market (which I am) the PL looks ready to bounce off a support level. 

It's not how much you win , it's how much you DON'T lose.

Well - the tide ha turned into doldrums  better then losing huge amounts. REMEMBER - RISK is 1 units.  It's not how much you win , it's how much you DON'T lose.  

Record
Wagers 624
Units +54.26

NOTE - always RISK ONE (1) unit - straight bets - $1 to win $0.91

Books used for lines Bovada $1 min bet / BETUS $5 min bet 

*******************************

Monday  total units   -0.11  How exciting 

Tuesday 

NBA - nothing for a week

NHL ML 

Minnesota -250 to win 0.40
NYIslandars -150 0.67

NHL PL 

Minnesota -1.5 +110
Florida -1.5 +115
Toronto -1.5 +115
NY Islanders -1.5 +185 

Just the facts.    

Getting my 5th tattoo today  Nightwish inspired.  

Sort of a small day today

  Record

Wagers 624

Units +54.37

NOTE - always RISK ONE (1) unit - straight bets - $1 to win $0.91

Books used for lines Bovada $1 min bet / BETUS $5 min bet 

*******************************

Sunday  total units   +0.30  How exciting 

Monday 

NBA - nothing for a week

NHL ML 

Carolina -220 to win 0.45
Calgary -225  0.44
Toronto -380 0.26  

NHL PL - nothing

Treading water the last month 

NHL ML is looking up 5 in a row

 Record

Wagers 616

Units +54.07

NOTE - always RISK ONE (1) unit - straight bets - $1 to win $0.91

Books used for lines Bovada $1 min bet / BETUS $5 min bet 

*******************************

Saturday  total units   +0.00  WEIRD 

Sunday

NBA - nothing for a week

NHL ML 

Columbus -155  to win 0.65
Dallas -250 0.40
Edmonton -105 0.95
Vegas -160 0.65

MHL PL 

NYRangers -1.5 +130
Columbus -1.5 +155
Dallas -1.5 Even
Vegas -1.5 +145

OH oh a new shiny kid in on the block

There is a new guy that is getting all the attention on the Facebook forum. He's won 12 in a row betting 12 units on some games and 2 on other games.  Not sure I understand that whole concept - seems like playing with fire to me.

Record
Wagers 611

Units +54.07

NOTE - always RISK ONE (1) unit - straight bets - $1 to win $0.91

Books used for lines Bovada $1 min bet / BETUS $5 min bet 

*******************************

Friday total units   +0.20

Saturday

NBA - nothing for a week

NHL ML 

Colorado -420 to win 0.24 W
Boston -180 0.56 W
LAKings -190 0.53 W

NHL PL

Colorado -1.5 -150 0.67 W 
Boston -1.5 +155 L
toronto -1.5 +140  L

It's been a rough week but maybe it's coming to an end? 

It's called variance I believe

In response to knowitall  Thank you - With all systems it's all about when to pull the plug before losing all your money if/when it fails.  

Not really at that point yet.  Looking at this weeks losses - it's call variance and if you don't have the balls to deal with variance you should not be sports wagering.

So far - lost a bunch this week but still up 53 units which is 53 more than 90% of sports handicappers.  I'm fine - disappointed but fine. 

Record
Wagers 608

Units +53.87

NOTE - always RISK ONE (1) unit - straight bets - $1 to win $0.91

Books used for lines Bovada $1 min bet / BETUS $5 min bet 

*******************************

Thursday  total units   -3.07

Friday

NBA - nothing for a week

NHL ML 

Carolina -175 to win 0.57 W
Dallas -160 0.63 W 

NHL PL 

Dallas -1.5 +170 L

Interesting side by side comparison

 

Shits hitting the fan with tragic losses

I went to bed feeling good, Utah had control Goldens State was doing well and Vegas migh hold on to with the +1.5   BUT NOOOOOOO 

28 foot 3 point with no time killed GS, Vegas game up a power play goal and Utah was outscored 10-4 in the final 1.5 minutes - a swing of 4.33 units.   grrrr 

Days 63

Record
Wagers 598
Units +56.94

ROI  9.52%  Remember - a pro is happy at 5% 

*ROI (Return on Investment) winnings / wagers

NOTE - always RISK ONE (1) unit - straight bets - $1 to win $0.91

Books used for lines Bovada $1 min bet / BETUS $5 min bet 

*******************************

Wednesday  total units   -2.94

Thursday NBA ML 

Miami -180 to win 0.56
Brooklyn -180 0.56
Milwaukee -250 0.40

NHL ML - tweaked  

Buffalo -120 0.83
Winnipeg -160 0.62
Chicago -135 0.74
Edmonton -225 0.44

NHL PL 

Philly +1.5 -165 0.61
Chicago -1.5 +170
Edmonton -1.5 +110

Choose your own adventure 

 

That even sucked worse

SO!  The 2nd and 3rd worst days.  An old guy once told me (I'm his age now) that this is where handicappers really  . . . . . . and then I forgot the rest.   

I don't see anything inherently wrong with the systems besides the losing part. The AI for the NHL ML is tightening as it should. And frankly I need to look deeper in the NHL ML. Should I dump it all together? and just go with the PL? That is where my head is at at the moment.

 Looking at the losing picks in the PL and NBA it's not like these are iffy picks in any way.  

NHL PL the +1.5s had their way last night. I'l looking for cracks in the systems and just don't see any.    

Days 62

Record
Wagers 548
Units +59.92

ROI  10.93%  Remember - a pro is happy at 5% 

*ROI (Return on Investment) winnings / wagers

NOTE - always RISK ONE (1) unit - straight bets - $1 to win $0.91

Books used for lines Bovada $1 min bet / BETUS $5 min bet 

*******************************

Tuesday  total units   -3.14

Wednesday

NBA ML 

Atlanta -240 to win 0.42
San Antonio -310 0.32
Chicago -220 0.45
Minnesota -105 0.95
Golden State -220 0.45
Utah -220 0.45

NHL ML - the ever tightening - I'm only playing 1% on the ML

Minnesota -135 0.74
Vegas +105

NHL PL - still 2%

Calgary -1.5 +135
Vegas +1.5 -235 0.43

Choose your own adventure 

WELL - that sucked

WELL - that was the 3rd worst day in 60 days for the combined systems - After a deep dive into what happened I have come up with a theory - it was a bad night. 

The chalk storm in the NBA has ended. The NBA system did not have any issues when the dog storm wa in vogue so we shall see.  I'm as curious as anybody. 

Systems have to go through the entire gamut of weirdness and every time the league as a whole changes the systems need to be watched for signs of breaking.  This is why most systems fail, you never start a system in a losing streak so when leagues change you need to make sure the AI can see this. The NBA is really aggressive at the moment, let's see what happens in the next week.          

Days 61

Wagers 539
Units +64.06
ROI  111.88%  Remember - a pro is happy at 5% 

*ROI (Return on Investment) winnings / wagers

NOTE - always RISK ONE (1) unit - straight bets - $1 to win $0.91

Books used for lines Bovada $1 min bet / BETUS $5 min bet 

*******************************

Monday  total units   -3.50

Tuesday

NBA ML 

Philly +130 to win 1.30 L
Atlanta Even  1.00 W
Miami -160 0.63 L
Minnesota -260 0.38 W

NHL ML 

St. Louis -210 0.48 W
Nashville -135 0.74 L
Colorado -260 0.38 L

NHL PL 

NY Rangers -1.5 +170 L
Nashville -1.5 +180 L

The rest of my graphs are too depressing - here is what would happen if you bet EVERY game - notice the NBA Chalk storm has ended 

 

Montreal is my Kryptonite

I have nothing to say 

Days 60

Wagers 534
Units +67.56
ROI  12.65%  Remember - a pro is happy at 5% 

*ROI (Return on Investment) winnings / wagers

NOTE - always RISK ONE (1) unit - straight bets - $1 to win $0.91

Books used for lines Bovada $1 min bet / BETUS $5 min bet 

*******************************

Sunday  total units   -0.91

Monday 

NBA ML - CRAZY BIG LINES 

NYKnicks -350 to win 0.29 L
Milwaukee - not going there -1600 Even I can't do that one 
Chicago -200 0.50 W
Golden State -25- 0.40 W

NHL ML

Winnipeg -180 0.63 L

NHL PL 

Winnipeg -1.5 + 145 L

The one thing I have noticed is that when the systems lose they don't lose a LOT but when they win they CAN have great days.   Did that that string of losing -1.5 puck lines though.   

ans speaking of puck lines they seem to be making a small comeback - or looking like it