WHEW - off the schnid

.

No charts at the moment - new computer does not have a GOOD copy of Excel yet that can do charts, maybe later today. Gotta get Photohop also grrrrr

RECORD
Day. 78 total
Wagers. total 691
Units here . +52.26

NOTE - always RISK ONE (1) unit - straight bets - $1 to win $0.91

WHY? I want to know how much I can lose. Winning at wagering is not about how much you win, it's about how much you DON'T lose

Books used for lines Bovada $1 min bet / BETUS $5 min bet

It's OK - nobody reads the above shit anyway

*******************************

Friday total units +1.81

Saturdays games

NBA ML . . . . 10.1% ROI

Dallas -300 to win 0.33
Golden State -240 0.42

NHL ML . . . . 1.2% ROI

Colorado -160 0.62

NHL PL. . . . 11.7% ROI

Colorado -1.5 +150

SPECIAL "DOG" plays in comments. The favorites (according to my algorithms ) are SO bad I'm going the other way

"DOG" plays - just put a few bucks for fun   - an experiment  INSIDE and experiment 

Chicago Blackhawks +105

Ottawa Senators -130 algorithm says Arizona will win

Columbus Blue Jackets +190

San Jose Sharks +155

Adlertag

 I'm reading a book about the Battle of Britain and last night felt like Adlertag ("Eagle Day")

I think this experiment has identified the weak link NHL Money lines - Pucklines good moneylines bad

Record
Day  77 total
Wagers  total 686
Units  total +50.45

NOTE - always RISK ONE (1) unit - straight bets - $1 to win $0.91

WHY? I want to know how much I can lose. Winning at wagering is not about how much you win, it's about how much you DON'T lose

Books used for lines Bovada $1 min bet / BETUS $5 min bet

It's OK - nobody reads the above shit anyway

*******************************

Thursday total units -6.13 Adlertag ("Eagle Day") FUCK

Friday Plays

NBA ML . . . . 10.2% ROI

Atlanta -175 to win 0.57
Indiana -140 0.71
Milwaukee -200 0.50
Minnesota -400 0.25

NHL ML . . . . 1.2% ROI

No Games

NHL PL. . . . 11.1 ROI

NYRangers -1.5 +150

BAD BAD day in the NHL for favorites

I hope everybody missed yesterdays picks

Record

Day76 total
Wagers total 676
Units total +56.58

NOTE - always RISK ONE (1) unit - straight bets - $1 to win $0.91

WHY? I want to know how much I can lose. Winning at wagering is not about how much you win, it's about how much you DON'T lose

Books used for lines Bovada $1 min bet / BETUS $5 min bet

It's OK - nobody reads the above shit anyway

*******************************

Wednesday total units -3.58 OUCH

Thursday Plays

NBA ML

Boston -110 to win 0.91
Miami -140 0.71

NHL ML

Carolina -125 0.80
NY Islanders -110 0.91
Vegas -110 0.91
Colorado -400 0.25

NHL PL

Minnesota -1.5 +125
NY Islanders -1.5 +220
Vegas -1.5 +235
Colorado -1.5 -140 0.71

And THAT my friends is why I so systems - the whole world was all over Toronto - one guy had PL -3.5 (yea you read that right) while my GAS system said ummmm not so fast cowboy, Don't play that game - play these OTHER losers instead.

I did tweak the NHL a little but honestly - no NEW games are involved with the tweak (is that good or bad)

SIDE GAMBLING NOTE. I think when my ML system says NY Rangers will win BUT the price is too high AND the other system says play the Rangers PL and one book as +1.5 and teh other -1.5 - PLAY BOTH!!!

look at the NHL PL graph - if you are a chart watcher it's like I have resistance about the +32 unit mark

Also not a good day for favorite

OOPS - forgot to post this LOL

 Remember the whole reason for these systems was to learn about betting hockey and learn about money lines. Winning $$ is a bonus. I've never really done anything with ML in my past all point spreads.

Record
Day 54 here 75 total
Wagers here 412 total 671 total I knew 666 was bad
Units here +29.61 total +60.42
ROI total 9.00%

NOTE - always RISK ONE (1) unit - straight bets - $1 to win $0.91

WHY? I want to know how much I can lose. Winning at wagering is not about how much you win, it's about how much you DON'T lose

Books used for lines Bovada $1 min bet / BETUS $5 min bet

It's OK - nobody reads the above shit anyway

*******************************

Tuesday total units -1.07

Wednesday Plays

NBA ML

Cleveland -150 to win 0.67
Orlando Even
New Orleans -240 0.42

Of Course Utah but not going there the ROI actually works but

-1000 GULP

NHL ML

Nashville -170 0.59

NHL PL

Nashville -1.5 +140

SIDE NOTE NYRangers the system says YUP Play the Puckline - HOWEVER - one site is -1.5 and the other is +1.5 screw that

PICK A SIDE !!

SIDE SIDE Note

NBA ML 222 plays 10.4% ROI
NHL ML 194 plays 3.7 ROI disappointing BUT still winning
NHL PL 215 plays 13.7% ROI
anything about 5% which is what pros go for is fine with me

The experiment to learn about money lines continues and looking forward to next year when I add in the dog line.

I was asked why not pick ML and PL if I'm picking PL - thh reason is its 3 seperate systems that don't really talk to each other.

In the below the top part is the ML system that shows what has happened in the past. The losses don't make up for the wins.

The bottom is the PL system and shows four good -1.5 wins and a smaller +1,5 win sp the ROI is MUCH better (did that make any sense?)

The other graph is units W/L daily

Give Back Monday I guess

Editorial comment

so I wake up and see some guy is blasting me and this system saying I’m doing it wrong and I will never win because I’m betting chalks.

TO ME it says HE can’t win betting chalks. It seems everybody says you can’t win betting favorites but then I ask – have they proven NOBODY can win? Or are they saying THEY can’t win, or, are they saying they HEARD you can’t win.

I want to see their actual numbers saying nobody can win. I like taking so called "truths" and seeing if there is actual or is it grapevine propaganda.

My goal with these systems was to find out the truth – Is it TRUE you cannot win? What are the ACTUAL facts.

What I have found is you can certainly win – but it’s a grind. You don’t win fast, you win slowly but with less fluctuation (if you RISK 1 unit). These systems could crash at any moment. That is why I continue even though I have a +9% ROI which is pretty dang good.

I stand down now – just hate people saying I can’t win when I have 660 wagers and 62 units up. NEXT year I will have dogs included as I totally understand you need both sides of the coin but I had to tip my toe in the water to see if my idea worked – so far so good.

Record
Day  74 
Wagers  666 OH OH 666
Units  +61.49
ROI total 9.23%

NOTE - always RISK ONE (1) unit - straight bets - $1 to win $0.91

WHY? I want to know how much I can lose. Winning at wagering is not about how much you win, it's about how much you DON'T lose

Books used for lines Bovada $1 min bet / BETUS $5 min bet

It's OK - nobody reads the above shit anyway

*******************************

Monday total units -1.43

Tuesday Plays

NBA ML

Boston -260 to win 0.34

NHL ML -so so slow

Minnesota EVEN

NHL PL

Edmonton -1.5 +155
Minnesota -1.5 +220
Boston -1.4 +140

The image with the green squares is my NBA system that tells me what is winning and what is losing and by how much- I have 3 of these NBA NHL ML and NHL PL and working on MLB with both dogs and chalks. NEXT year Dogs in the NBA and NHL - did not seem to work when I tried it earlier but I don't want to upset the chalk police

five in a row

OK OK so shoot me - it was NOT GIVE BACK SUNDAY - my bad

5 winning days in a row. shhhh don't tell anybody about the worlds most boring system. SERIOUSLY - I don't know how you guys do it with 2 or 3 picks - THAT is stress. I feel MUCH more comfortable in double digits. It all evens out with a slant to the plus side. 

Record
Day 72
Wagers 663
Units +62.92
ROI total 9.49%

NOTE - always RISK ONE (1) unit - straight bets - $1 to win $0.91

*******************************

Sunday total units +0.91 UP +10.02 in the last 5 days

You do realize that being up 60+ units after 663 wagers mostly chalks is an accomplishment. It's not the long run yet but . . .anything below 400 wagers is still pretty random. 

Monday Plays

NBA ML

Toronto -175 to win 0.57

NHL ML - nothing
NHL PL

Vancouver +1.5 -230 0.43
Washington +1.5 -220 0.45

Sweet 4 days !

OK - Great 4 days - it's GIVE BACK SUNDAY . . . . WHAT?

DAMN - I get this whole bragging thing wrong!
It's . . . . . . BOUNCE . . . FORWARD SUNDAY

Record
Day 71 
Wagers 654  Getting near the "LONG RUN" another 300 wagers.
Units +62.07
ROI total 9.49%

NOTE - always RISK ONE (1) unit - straight bets - $1 to win $0.91

WHY? I want to know how much I can lose. Winning at wagering is not about how much you win, it's about how much you DON'T lose

Books used for lines Bovada $1 min bet / BETUS $5 min bet

It's OK - nobody reads the above shit anyway

*******************************

Saturday total units +3.48 UP +9.29 in the last 4 days

Sunday Plays

NBA ML

Philly -350 to win 0.29 W
Phoenix +110 1.10 L
LAClippers -260 0.38 W
Denver -350 0.29 W

NHL ML

St.Louis -155 0.60 W
Anaheim -115 0.87 L
San Jose -125 0.80 W

NHL PL

St.Louis -1.5 +150 W
Anaheim -1.5 +225 L

Heading in the right direction

Record
Day 70
Wagers 643
Units +58.59
ROI  9.11%

NOTE - always RISK ONE (1) unit - straight bets - $1 to win $0.91

WHY? I want to know how much I can lose. Winning at wagering is not about how much you win, it's about how much you DON'T lose

Books used for lines Bovada $1 min bet / BETUS $5 min bet

*******************************

Friday total units +0.41
Saturday Plays

NBA ML

Miami -400 to win 0.25  W

NHL ML

Florida -200 0.50 L
Washington -170 0.59 L
Pittsburgh -170 0.59 W
Calgary -145 0.69 W
LAKings -125 0.80 W

NHL PL

Washington -1.5 +145 L
Pittsburgh -1.5 +150 L 
Calgary -1.5 +170 W
Boston -1.5 +145 W
LAKings -1.5 +200 W 

How are the lines working lately?  Here is if you picked EVERY favorite in the last 70? days